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January 14, 2009

Estimating Incidence of HIV Infection in Uganda

JAMA. 2009;301(2):159-161. doi:10.1001/jama.2008.954

To the Editor: Dr Mermin and colleagues1 reported results from the nationally representative survey conducted in Uganda in 2004, showing an overall HIV prevalence of 6.35%. The BED assay was then applied to this cross-sectional study to identify recent HIV infections to give an estimated incidence of 1.8 per 100 person-years and a prevalence-to-incidence ratio of 3.3:1. In another study of a rural population of 18 000 from Masaka in 2004, the HIV prevalence was 7.7%, similar to the national estimate, but incidence was 0.5 per 100 person-years, giving a prevalence-to-incidence ratio of 15.4:1.2

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