When public health experts attempt to forecast what the state of the global HIV/AIDS pandemic will be at the end of the decade, they see two alternate futures—with 29 million lives hanging in the balance. In one scenario, the world continues to deploy prevention measures in a relatively piecemeal fashion, reaching only one in five people who are at risk of infection. In the other scenario, the global community engages in a massive scaling up of prevention activities, an effort that proponents say could reduce cumulative new infections by more than 60% by 2010.
Stephenson J. Can Massive Prevention Efforts Avert 29 Million New Cases of HIV by 2010?. JAMA. 2002;288(3):301-302. doi:10.1001/jama.288.3.301-JMN0717-2-1