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September 24, 1938

CHANGING POPULATIONS: THE INFERENCES

JAMA. 1938;111(13):1189. doi:10.1001/jama.1938.02790390045014
Abstract

In an editorial published last week entitled "Changing Populations: The Premise"1 the latest estimate of probable trends in population as outlined in a recent government monograph2 was partially analyzed. If correctly anticipated there will be a great change in the age distribution of the population by 1980. According to the hypotheses of low fertility, medium mortality and no immigration there will be in 1980 only about 6 1/2 million under 5 years of age (12,143,000 in 1930), 21 1/2 million between 5 and 20, 44 1/2 million between 20 and 45, nearly 40 million between 45 and 65, and 22 million over 65 (6 1/2 million in 1930). Assuming a medium fertility and medium mortality, there would be more in the younger age groups than in the first hypothesis, 9,906,000, for example, under 5 years of age. With immigration there would be a still slightly higher proportion in

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