UNFORTUNATELY, it will.
Because that is such an unpleasant thought, it is important to examine each link in the supporting chain of reasoning. As the case for rationing tightens, there will be a tremendous temptation to go back and question the underlying premise. Therefore the first question is:
DO WE REALLY HAVE TO CONTROL COSTS?
Yes, we do.Although virtually everyone agrees that health care costs are a problem, it is worthwhile to review a few of the facts that indicate just how bad the problem is. Begin with the fact that for the last few decades health care costs have been increasing at a rate of about 11.5% a year.1 This is far faster than other sectors of the economy, with the result that health care has steadily grown as a proportion of the gross domestic product (GDP), from about 5% in 1960 to about 12% in 1990.
Eddy DM. Health System ReformWill Controlling Costs Require Rationing Services?. JAMA. 1994;272(4):324-328. doi:10.1001/jama.1994.03520040088055