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January 11, 1995

Forecasting Physician Workforce Requirements-Reply

Author Affiliations

The Johns Hopkins School of Public Health Baltimore, Md

JAMA. 1995;273(2):113. doi:10.1001/jama.1995.03520260031021

In Reply.  —A key goal of my article was to help revitalize interest in the long-dormant topic of physician workforce planning. Based on the letters herein, others sent to me personally, and related editorials printed in many major newspapers, it appears that I have been, at least to some degree, successful.Accepting my charge from the Council on Graduate Medical Education, I attempted to portray the likely outcomes of one set of assumptions, which included growth in managed care plans and universal insurance coverage. Although I did my best to adopt a set of defendable suppositions, I claim neither a monopoly on truth nor prophetic abilities. To the contrary, as stated in my article and in other writings,1 it is essential that scrutiny be directed at all assumptions embodied in this or any other forecasting model. Thus, I am gratified that your readers are suggesting alternative scenarios and perspectives.

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