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Article
October 20, 1993

Why Estimates of Physician Supply and Requirements Disagree

Author Affiliations

Bureau of Health Professionals Rockville, Md

JAMA. 1993;270(15):1813. doi:10.1001/jama.1993.03510150047023
Abstract

To the Editor.  —The recent review of major forecasts of physician supply and requirements by Feil et al1 substantively contributes to the literature on forecasting physician resources. The supply forecasts for the year 2000 differ substantially among the Bureau of Health Professions (BHPr), the American Medical Association (AMA), and the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC), the three sets of forecasts reviewed by Feil et al that were developed independent of any others. As those responsible for the BHPr physician supply model, we wish to clarify the differences between our physician supply projections and those of the AMA and GMENAC. We would also like to briefly discuss the rationale for our estimates.Two main items account for the nearly 50000 physician difference between the referenced (1988 through 1989) BHPr and AMA forecasts. The first is due to the AMA's lower forecast of international medical graduate (IMG) new entrants.

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