Becker et al1 tell a cautionary tale of a patient who, despite a low probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoes noninvasive testing with cardiac computed tomography angiography (CCTA) for the purpose of “reassurance.” The positive test finding is followed by testing of escalating invasiveness, producing harm culminating in the need for an emergent orthotopic heart transplant. The case demonstrates a failure to use Bayesian thinking.
Zilberberg MD. Bayesian Thinking: A Safer Tool for Reassurance. Arch Intern Med. 2011;171(7):702-710. doi:10.1001/archinternmed.2011.111