October 1991

A Model of Lifetime Osteoporosis Impact

Author Affiliations

From the Department of Preventive Medicine and Environmental Health (Drs Chrischilles, Davis, and Wallace), and the College of Pharmacy (Dr Butler), University of Iowa, Iowa City. Dr Butler is now with University Hospital Consortium, Oak Brook, Ill. Dr Chrischilles is a Burroughs Wellcome Scholar in Pharmacoepidemiology.

Arch Intern Med. 1991;151(10):2026-2032. doi:10.1001/archinte.1991.00400100100017

The study goal was to use population-based data to model aspects of lifetime osteoporosis impact not previously studied, specifically: (1) to estimate person-years of fracturerelated functional impairment against the trajectory of functional status in the general population; (2) jointly to consider hip, vertebral, and Colles' fractures in estimating the percent of women who will ever fracture; and (3) to estimate the lifetime number of fractures expected in a cohort of 10 000 50-year-old white postmenopausal women. The model estimates that 54% of 50-year-old women will sustain osteoporosis-related fractures during their remaining lifetimes. Beyond the functional impairment expected in similarly aged, unfractured women, osteoporosis-related fractures are estimated to cause 6.7% of women to become dependent in basic activities of daily living; 7.8% are expected to require nursing home care for an average of 7.6 years.

(Arch Intern Med. 1991;151:2026-2032)