Comment & Response
August 2013

Bayesian Analysis of Posttest Predictive Value of Screening Instruments for the Psychosis High-Risk State

Author Affiliations
  • 1Department of Psychological Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand

Copyright 2013 American Medical Association. All Rights Reserved. Applicable FARS/DFARS Restrictions Apply to Government Use.

JAMA Psychiatry. 2013;70(8):880-881. doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2013.1320

To the Editor A recent meta-analysis1 and review2 of transition to psychosis in high-risk individuals did not consider the possibility that variability may exist in the predictive value of screening instruments, which might identify different populations with different rates of transition. We evaluated this in a Bayesian analysis of the posttest probability of transition from publications that provided descriptions of screening instruments’ sensitivity and specificity, along with a point prevalence or transition rate to psychosis.

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