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August 1966

Problems in Prediction of a Schizophrenic Population

Author Affiliations

From the Arthur P. Noyes Institute for Neuropsychiatric Research, New Hampshire Hospital, Concord, NH.

Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1966;15(2):140-143. doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1966.01730140028005

BRILL and Patton reported an exhaustive statistical analysis of the New York mental hospitals in 1962 and predicted a decline of 15% to 20% in the schizophrenic population by 1970.1 This is consistent with the decreasing resident population trends in most mental disorders and it would be expected that the schizophrenic population would decrease with the rest of the hospital population. However, Brill and Patton's study used predictions based on trends which take into account only recent years; it is desirable to check their findings in another hospital in the perspective of a longer span of time.

The present paper deals with (1) an estimate of future schizophrenic population and (2) the problems of estimation arising from changes in trends of retention of schizophrenic population at New Hampshire Hospital. The prediction project was undertaken when the hospital trustees asked for a population estimate

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