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February 1977

Prediction of Outcome in SchizophreniaIII. Five-Yearn Outcome and Its Predictors

Author Affiliations

From the International Pilot Study of Schizophrenia. A complete list of collaborating investigators appears on p 163.

Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1977;34(2):159-163. doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1977.01770140049005

† Recent studies of schizophrenia have begun to demonstrate the complex nature of its outcome characteristics and their predictors. However, generalization of findings has been limited by methodological problems such as relatively short-term followup, the use of retrospective data, or employment of evaluation techniques without demonstrated reliability. This report describes a prospective, five-year follow-up using reliable evaluation techniques to determine whether specific relations between predictors and outcome variables represent behavior patterns persisting over an extended period. Results demonstrate the prognostic importance and specificity of certain predictors over five years. These results support the view that outcome function is comprised of persisting open-linked systems of behavior.