Emergency general surgery (EGS) patients have a disproportionate burden of death and complications. Chronic liver disease (CLD) increases the risk of complications following elective surgery. For EGS patients with CLD, long-term outcomes are unknown and risk stratification models do not reflect severity of CLD.
To determine whether the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is associated with increased risk of 90-day mortality following intensive care unit (ICU) admission in EGS patients.
Design, Setting, and Participants
We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with CLD who underwent an EGS procedure based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) procedure codes and were admitted to a medical or surgical ICU within 48 hours of surgery between January 1, 1998, and September 20, 2012, at 2 academic medical centers. Chronic liver disease was identified using ICD-9 codes. Multivariable logistic regression was performed. The analysis was conducted from July 1, 2015, to January 1, 2016.
Main Outcomes and Measures
The primary outcome was all-cause 90-day mortality.
A total of 13 552 EGS patients received critical care; of these, 707 (5%) (mean [SD] age at hospital admission, 56.6 [14.2] years; 64% male; 79% white) had CLD and data to determine MELD score at ICU admission. The median MELD score was 14 (interquartile range, 10-20). Overall 90-day mortality was 30.1%. The adjusted odds ratio of 90-day mortality for each 10-point increase in MELD score was 1.63 (95% CI, 1.34-1.98). A decrease in MELD score of more than 3 in the 48 hours following ICU admission was associated with a 2.2-fold decrease in 90-day mortality (odds ratio = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.22-0.98).
Conclusions and Relevance
In this study, MELD score was associated with 90-day mortality following EGS in patients with CLD. The MELD score can be used as a prognostic factor in this patient population and should be used in preoperative risk prediction models and when counseling EGS patients on the risks and benefits of operative intervention.
Havens JM, Columbus AB, Olufajo OA, Askari R, Salim A, Christopher KB. Association of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score With Mortality in Emergency General Surgery Patients. JAMA Surg. 2016;151(7):e160789. doi:10.1001/jamasurg.2016.0789