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Article
June 1979

Predictability of Present Outcome and Future Recurrence in Acute Pancreatitis

Author Affiliations

From the Department of Surgery, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta. Dr Satiani is a J. D. Martin Surgery Fellow in Trauma.

Arch Surg. 1979;114(6):711-716. doi:10.1001/archsurg.1979.01370300065010
Abstract

• Although acute pancreatitis is relatively common, factors useful in predicting immediate outcome or likelihood of recurrence have seldom been studied in greater detail. A ten-year experience with 389 patients hospitalized for 821 separate episodes of acute pancreatitis was reviewed. The overall mortality was 6.7%, being highest on the first admission and considerably greater for white males. Respiratory complications accounting for 27% of the fatalities were the most common causes of death. The incidence of considerable morbidity was 19.5%. Clinical diagnoses of "shock" and "respiratory distress" were associated with mortalities of 88% and 71%, respectively. The overall recurrence rate was 50.1%, with little variation regardless as to the number of previous bouts. Recurrence was more likely if the patient was black, male, older than 30 years of age, and had experienced a second episode of acute pancreatitis. Admission data aid considerably in identifying high-risk patients in whom major complications develop, who die during the present episode, or who have a future recurrent bout of acute pancreatitis.

(Arch Surg 114:711-716, 1979)

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