It seems scarcely necessary to repeat the commonplace that the death rate from cardiac and circulatory diseases is mounting while that from the infectious diseases is falling (chart 1). But it is necessary to insist on this fact in order to raise these questions: First, how do the individuals who died formerly of infectious diseases come to an end? and, second, is it really true that the increase in deaths from circulatory diseases takes place because of the fall in deaths from infectious ones? It is necessary to show that the fall in the former is actually enough to account for the rise in the latter. A simple calculation shows that this is not true. The decades that are especially involved are those after age 40, for it is in these that the rises in circulatory diseases have taken place. The increases in circulatory diseases are indeed greater than the
COHN AE. AN ANALYSIS OF THE APPARENT INCREASE IN THE HEART DISEASES. JAMA. 1935;105(18):1394–1395. doi:10.1001/jama.1935.02760440004002
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