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Global Health
November 15, 2016

Where Will Zika Spread?

Author Affiliations

Copyright 2016 American Medical Association. All Rights Reserved.

JAMA. 2016;316(19):1956. doi:10.1001/jama.2016.16151

Regions in Africa and Asia-Pacific that are most susceptible to the spread of Zika virus from the Americas have been identified through an ecological modeling study recently published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

An international team of investigators examined the potential routes of additional Zika transmission by considering 3 factors: air transportation, mosquito occurrences, and the vector competence for flavivirus transmission. They analyzed air travel patterns from 689 cities in the Americas with conditions suitable for year-round Zika transmission and commercial airports that have routes to Africa and the Asia-Pacific region. Researchers then overlaid these flight patterns with monthly maps of climatic suitability for mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus in Africa and the Asia-Pacific region.