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Global Health
July 17, 2018

Global Temperature Affects Dengue

JAMA. 2018;320(3):227. doi:10.1001/jama.2018.9737

Millions of cases of dengue fever could be averted in Latin America and the Caribbean by limiting the increase in global warming by the end of the century, according to a new study by investigators from the United Kingdom and Brazil.

The team used computer modeling to estimate the effect of future climate change and population growth on the additional number of dengue cases using clinical and laboratory-confirmed dengue reports for Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, the 3 most populated countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. They analyzed a scenario in which nothing is done to curb climate change, where global mean temperature rises 3.7°C above preindustrial levels by 2100, and compared this with 2 alternate scenarios in which the rise in temperature is held to 1.5°C or 2°C. For each of these scenarios, they quantified the likely number of additional dengue cases and changes in the length of dengue transmission.