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Article
July 10, 1948

REVIEW OF ILLUSTRATIVE UNITED STATES POPULATION PROJECTION, 1946

JAMA. 1948;137(11):985-987. doi:10.1001/jama.1948.82890450013021a
Abstract

Assuming that low fertility produces a decrease in total population and high mortality decreases the number of aged persons, and the reverse, that high fertility produces an increase in total population and low mortality increases the number of aged persons, estimates of total population one hundred years hence can be obtained.

In the report here discussed1 population figures for 1945 were projected for the next hundred years. Projections were based on the population of the United States as of July 1, 1945, as estimated by the Bureau of the Census.1

Four proje[ill]tions were made: A assumes a low fertility and high mortality without calculation of immigration (2050 A. D. population—63,521,000); B assumes a high fertility and low mortality. Thi. estimate includes an expected 100,000 immigrants per year (2050 population—372,755,000); C assumes a high fertility and high mortality. Immigration estimates were not included (2050 population— 264,014,000); D assumes a

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