Assuming that low fertility produces a decrease in total population and high mortality decreases the number of aged persons, and the reverse, that high fertility produces an increase in total population and low mortality increases the number of aged persons, estimates of total population one hundred years hence can be obtained.
In the report here discussed1 population figures for 1945 were projected for the next hundred years. Projections were based on the population of the United States as of July 1, 1945, as estimated by the Bureau of the Census.1
Four proje[ill]tions were made: A assumes a low fertility and high mortality without calculation of immigration (2050 A. D. population—63,521,000); B assumes a high fertility and low mortality. Thi. estimate includes an expected 100,000 immigrants per year (2050 population—372,755,000); C assumes a high fertility and high mortality. Immigration estimates were not included (2050 population— 264,014,000); D assumes a
REVIEW OF ILLUSTRATIVE UNITED STATES POPULATION PROJECTION, 1946. JAMA. 1948;137(11):985–987. doi:10.1001/jama.1948.82890450013021a
Coronavirus Resource Center
Customize your JAMA Network experience by selecting one or more topics from the list below.
Create a personal account or sign in to: