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Sept 11, 1967

Predicting Coronary Heart Disease

Author Affiliations

From the Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor.

JAMA. 1967;201(11):795-800. doi:10.1001/jama.1967.03130110021006

The probability of the development of coronary heart disease can now be defined with considerable accuracy. The probability of the development of clinical disease in middle-aged men with various combinations of risk factors in the upper range is somewhere between one and two chances in five within a ten-year period. When such men are compared with others in the lower ranges of these variables, their excessive risk is of the order of threefold to tenfold, depending on the selection of predisposing factors and the choice of dividing points between "positive" and "negative" test results. Determining the need for preventive measures in a given individual has, therefore, become a matter of rational and quantitative assessment rather than a decision based on an informed and intelligent guess.