To the Editor.—
The article entitled "Male-to-Female Transmission of Human Immunodeficiency Virus [HIV]"1 provides highly useful epidemiologic data. The 23% one-year conversion to positivity for HIV antibodies among female partners of HIV-positive bisexual men implies an average heterosexual transmission rate of one case per index case every three to 3.5 years or about one transmission every 300 to 400 genital contacts. These values are in excellent agreement with those obtained from our computer modeling of the spread of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in a heterogeneous population. We obtained a heterosexual transmission rate of one case per index case every three to four years, with a concomitant transfer rate of 1/300 per heterosexual contact.Coupling these results with transmission rates of one every 16 months in the gay population, which is lower than the historical rates, and a crossover rate from the high- to the low-risk group of one infection
Allan M. Salzberg, Richard H. Runser, Stanley L. Dolins, David H. Salzberg. Male-to-Female Transmission of HIV. JAMA. 1987;258(23):3386. doi:10.1001/jama.1987.03400230046019
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