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—Drs Johnson and Pickle raise an important issue, that of models that are used to predict risk, such as the Gail model. We have completed an analysis of our data from the NHS to evaluate the fit of the Gail model to data that have been collected prospectively in the NHS. The manuscript documenting these results is currently under review for possible publication. When published, this will set forth in detail the areas of agreement and discrepancy between the original Gail model and the fit of that model to the NHS data.
Colditz GA, Hunter DJ. Risk of Breast Cancer in the Nurses' Health Study: Applying the Gail Model-Reply. JAMA. 1993;270(24):2926. doi:10.1001/jama.1993.03510240037017