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Lakka H, Laaksonen DE, Lakka TA, et al. The Metabolic Syndrome and Total and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Middle-aged Men. JAMA. 2002;288(21):2709–2716. doi:10.1001/jama.288.21.2709
Author Affiliations: Research Institute of Public Health (Drs H.-M. Lakka, T. Lakka, and Salonen), Department of Public Health and General Practice (Drs H.-M. Lakka, Kumpusalo, and Salonen), and Department of Physiology (Dr Laaksonen), University of Kuopio, Finland; Pennington Biomedical Research Center, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge (Drs H.-M. Lakka and T. Lakka); Department of Medicine, Kuopio University Hospital, Finland (Drs Laaksonen and Niskanen); Kuopio Research Institute of Exercise Medicine, Finland (Dr T. Lakka); Inner Savo Health Center, Suonenjoki, Finland (Dr Salonen); General Practice, Kuopio University Hospital, Finland (Dr Kumpusalo); Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Finland (Dr Tuomilehto); and Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, National Public Health Institute, Helsinki, Finland (Dr Tuomilehto).
Context The metabolic syndrome, a concurrence of disturbed glucose and insulin
metabolism, overweight and abdominal fat distribution, mild dyslipidemia,
and hypertension, is associated with subsequent development of type 2 diabetes
mellitus and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Despite its high prevalence, little
is known of the prospective association of the metabolic syndrome with cardiovascular
and overall mortality.
Objective To assess the association of the metabolic syndrome with cardiovascular
and overall mortality using recently proposed definitions and factor analysis.
Design, Setting, and Participants The Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study, a population-based,
prospective cohort study of 1209 Finnish men aged 42 to 60 years at baseline
(1984-1989) who were initially without CVD, cancer, or diabetes. Follow-up
continued through December 1998.
Main Outcome Measures Death due to coronary heart disease (CHD), CVD, and any cause among
men with vs without the metabolic syndrome, using 4 definitions based on the
National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) and the World Health Organization
Results The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome ranged from 8.8% to 14.3%,
depending on the definition. There were 109 deaths during the approximately
11.4-year follow-up, of which 46 and 27 were due to CVD and CHD, respectively.
Men with the metabolic syndrome as defined by the NCEP were 2.9 (95% confidence
interval [CI], 1.2-7.2) to 4.2 (95% CI, 1.6-10.8) times more likely and, as
defined by the WHO, 2.9 (95% CI, 1.2-6.8) to 3.3 (95% CI, 1.4-7.7) times more
likely to die of CHD after adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk
factors. The metabolic syndrome as defined by the WHO was associated with
2.6 (95% CI, 1.4-5.1) to 3.0 (95% CI, 1.5-5.7) times higher CVD mortality
and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.2-3.0) to 2.1 (95% CI, 1.3-3.3) times higher all-cause
mortality. The NCEP definition less consistently predicted CVD and all-cause
mortality. Factor analysis using 13 variables associated with metabolic or
cardiovascular risk yielded a metabolic syndrome factor that explained 18%
of total variance. Men with loadings on the metabolic factor in the highest
quarter were 3.6 (95% CI, 1.7-7.9), 3.2 (95% CI, 1.7-5.8), and 2.3 (95% CI,
1.5-3.4) times more likely to die of CHD, CVD, and any cause, respectively.
Conclusions Cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality are increased in men
with the metabolic syndrome, even in the absence of baseline CVD and diabetes.
Early identification, treatment, and prevention of the metabolic syndrome
present a major challenge for health care professionals facing an epidemic
of overweight and sedentary lifestyle.
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