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Editor's Correspondence
June 27, 2011

Improving the Prediction of Incident Atrial Fibrillation—Reply

Author Affiliations

Author Affiliations: Department of Medicine 2, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany (Dr Schnabel); National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Framingham Study, Framingham, Massachusetts (Drs Schnabel and Benjamin); Icelandic Heart Association, Heart Preventive Clinic and Research Institute, University of Iceland, Reykjavik (Dr Gudnason); Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle (Dr Heckbert); Boston University School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Whitaker Cardiovascular Institute, Evans Memorial Medicine Department, Cardiology Section, Preventive Medicine Department, School of Medicine, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts (Dr Benjamin); and Group Health Research Institute, Group Health Cooperative, Seattle (Dr Heckbert).

Arch Intern Med. 2011;171(12):1125. doi:10.1001/archinternmed.2011.267

In reply

Our validation efforts revealed that a simple risk algorithm including strong risk factors consistently associated with incident AF predicted long-term incidence of AF reasonably well in 2 additional independent cohorts, one of which included African Americans.1 The selection criteria for the current risk algorithm comprised risk indicators clinically available from patient history and physical examination at no additional cost. Other known and novel risk factors will need to be evaluated for their ability to improve risk prediction beyond the current algorithm. A standardized assessment of risk factors across populations is desirable.