The average annual incidence of diabetes among 8,688 adult men followed up for five years was 8.0/1,000 with Asian, African and Israeli-born having higher rates than European-born.
Multivariate analysis of the findings suggested the following: the most significant variables associated with the development of diabetes are overweight and peripheral vascular disease; the high incidence of diabetes in immigrants from Asia and Africa might be an example of Neel's "thrifty genotype" or failure of adaptation to relatively rapid environmental changes; serum cholesterol level, blood pressure, uric acid level, and education were important also; and the probability of developing diabetes within five years rises from 17/1,000 (when the major variables are low or absent) to 450/1,000 (when they are high and present). This has important clinical implications.
Medalie JH, Papier CM, Goldbourt U, Herman JB. Major Factors in the Development of Diabetes Mellitus in 10,000 Men. Arch Intern Med. 1975;135(6):811–817. doi:10.1001/archinte.1975.00330060055007
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