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Research Letter
November 19, 2020

Assessment of Discordance Among Smoldering Multiple Myeloma Risk Models

Author Affiliations
  • 1Multiple Myeloma Program, Lymphoid Malignancies Branch, Center for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
  • 2John P. Murtha Cancer Center, Hematology-Oncology Department, Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, Bethesda, Maryland
  • 3Laboratory of Pathology, Center for Cancer Research, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
  • 4Myeloma Service, Department of Medicine, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York
JAMA Oncol. 2021;7(1):132-134. doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2020.5585

Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is a plasma cell disorder with the potential to evolve to multiple myeloma.1 Several risk stratification models—commonly, the Mayo Clinic Risk Stratification Model 2008, the Programa para el Tratamiento de Hemopatias Malignas (PETHEMA) model, and the newer Mayo Clinic Risk Stratification Model 2018—have been developed to prognosticate the risk of progression.2,3 These models use clinical variables of disease burden rather than biological tumor characteristics to predict low risk (LR), intermediate risk (IR), and high risk (HR) for progression to multiple myeloma (MM). Multiple clinical trials are investigating the role of treatment in HR SMM. Interpreting the results of clinical trials investigating the role of treatment in HR SMM is problematic owing to variation in the risk stratification criteria used.4 Our study attempts to assess the concordance of these 3 models in a cohort of patients with SMM from 2 clinical trials.

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