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Article
November 1981

Chronic Progressive Renal FailureRate of Progression Monitored by Change of Serum Creatinine Concentration

Am J Dis Child. 1981;135(11):1039-1043. doi:10.1001/archpedi.1981.02130350039013
Abstract

• The rise of serum creatinine levels during renal failure progressing to end-stage renal disease was studied in 30 children. In 20 patients the rise was a steady one and followed a mathematical model, best expressed by the regression line calculated from reciprocal values. Ten patients had widely fluctuating values that did not fit any of the available mathematical models; however, in three patients, the curve had two slopes. The initially slow rate of progression changed to a more rapid, steady rise when a creatinine level of 2 to 3 mg/dL was reached. Therefore, in 23 of 30 patients, the time at which a serum creatinine value of 10 mg/dL would be reached could be predicted with acceptable accuracy based on this calculation or using a graphic plot. In the terminal phase of renal failure, the serum creatinine value progressed from 7 to 10 mg/dL in less than four months in 80% of the cases.

(Am J Dis Child 1981;135:1039-1043)

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