Risk and prognosis are central concepts in precision medicine, referring to the probability of future outcomes in people with a particular health condition. Prognosis research has a long history in epidemiology, medicine, and public health. According to the PROGnosis RESearch Strategy (PROGRESS) framework,1 there are 4 broad types of prognostic research. Type 1, fundamental prognosis research, investigates the natural course of an illness and its response to treatment. Type 2, prognostic factor research, measures specific variables at a baseline state of health and quantifies their association with future outcomes. Type 3, prognostic model research, involves the development of clinical decision tools that help to predict individual risk. Type 4, stratified medicine research, seeks to tailor treatment decisions to an individual or group of individuals with similar characteristics (ie, phenotypes). In this way, prognosis research evolves along a translational pathway from basic science to health care implementation.
Delgadillo J, Lutz W. A Development Pathway Towards Precision Mental Health Care. JAMA Psychiatry. 2020;77(9):889–890. doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2020.1048
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