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February 1964

Prognosis in Schizophrenia: A Follow-Up Study of 588 Patients

Author Affiliations

Chief (Dr. Sherman), Psychology Service, VAH; Research Psychologist (Dr. Moseley), VA Central NP Research Laboratory; Chief (Dr. Ging), Psychiatry Service, VAH; Clinical Psychologist (Dr. Bookbinder), VAH.

Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1964;10(2):123-130. doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1964.01720200019004

A rare opportunity for follow-up of a large number of schizophrenic men and examination of some prognostic variables was afforded by a 1958 Veterans Administration study.3 Objective data on the dates of admission and discharge over a three-year period provided an outcome criterion against which the predictive validity of the extensive social, psychiatric, and psychological data collected on 588 schizophrenic men admitted to 35 VA hospitals could be evaluated.

This report will attempt to: (a) describe the relationship of each variable to outcome over the three-year follow-up period, (b) determine the relative importance of these variables in predicting success or failure, and (c) test the effectiveness of differential weighting of these variables in predicting outcome.

Method  Of the original 593 patients, 588 or 98% participated in the present follow-up study. The small loss of five cases was due solely to administrative technicalities. Details of

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