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June 1967

Prognosis in SchizophreniaPrognostic Scales Crossvalidated in American and Norwegian Patients

Arch Gen Psychiatry. 1967;16(6):693-698. doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1967.01730240049008

IN PREVIOUS studies Stephens and Astrup have described the results of long-term follow-ups of schizophrenic patients treated at the Phipps Clinic in Baltimore.1-4

A long-term follow-up of 972 patients with functional psychoses admitted to Gaustad Hospital in Oslo between 1938 and 1950 has been carried out by Astrup et al.5 A new series of 706 first admissions between 1951 and 1957 has been followed up during 1962 and 1963 and reported by Astrup and Noreik. Using computer calculations and multiple regression techniques, prognostic scales based on the presence or absence of prognostic variables have been constructed and evaluated. The scales have been crossvalidated in the two Norwegian samples with an average accuracy of prediction of 80%.6 One such Norwegian scale, using 12 Weighted variables, has been used in the present study to predict outcome in American schizophrenic patients. Another scale, based on a

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